I despise results-based thinking.
Essentially, if something “works” then, of course, it was the right thing to do.
Football is full of perfect examples, like when a team decides to “go for it” on fourth down and long in a situation where it’s unnecessary, unlikely to work and/or likely to backfire with massive consequences. Still, the coach throws caution (and logic) to the wind and has his quarterback throw a YOLO pass down the field, which is miraculously completed.
Did the play’s success make the decision a “right” one? Well, those who base their (flawed) logic on results-oriented thinking would bellow an emphatic, “Yes!”
The inverse is also true within this warped worldview: If a choice results in failure, then it obviously was the wrong decision.
As America approaches the Final Four in the inaugural year of a 12-team college football playoff, we should not immediately judge it as a failure just because most of the games have been unentertaining, non-competitive blowouts thus far.
If Ohio State and Tennessee scheduled a regular-season game, everyone would be applauding the two programs’ courage for doing so, and we would be champing at the bit for the kickoff. The same goes for Texas vs. Clemson, Penn State vs. SMU and, yes, even Notre Dame vs. Indiana. Each of those games pit power conference teams against power conference teams, something sorely lacking in the first month of most football seasons. Even Boise State vs. Penn State would be overwhelmingly welcomed in the regular season, since the mid-major Broncos have punched above their weight class for two decades.
So, why are people ready to storm the Bastille when those specific matchups actually happened in this year’s postseason? Why would anyone proclaim the new playoff system an epic disaster simply because all the aforementioned games ended up being blowouts?
Well, we are witnessing results-based thinking in real time.
The fact those games unfolded less auspiciously than most people wanted does not mean the enlarged playoff field has failed. It simply means … football happens, as shown by all four of the teams with first-round byes losing last week. The first game of this year’s playoff was Penn State’s 33-24 win over what appeared to be an overmatched Indiana squad. The Hoosiers were eviscerated by talking heads and on social media — even by other college head coaches — as being unworthy of a playoff berth. As it turns out, however, Indiana’s only two losses of the season were against, ahem, two of the four teams still alive in the playoff.
The argument that only two or three teams are “good enough” to win the national championship each season also seems illogical when considering there have been just six undefeated champions in the last 15 years. Somewhere along the line, the best teams usually get tripped at least once, and usually against teams outside of the “good enough” category.
Eventually it’ll happen in the playoffs, so just give it a chance.
What were some other results from this bowl season to which to apply misbegotten logic? Let’s look in this bowl version of Hangover Highlights!
- If I’m going to mention “misbegotten logic,” I might as well talk about the Oklahoma Sooners. My definition of “misbegotten logic” involves going for an all-or-nothing two-point conversion to decide a game against an opposing team that is (a) not as talented, and (b) lacking any semblance of a decent field goal kicker. Still, there OU was, lining up for the make-or-break attempt against Navy, trailing 21-20 with six seconds remaining in the Armed Forces Bowl on Dec. 27.
- Sure, I’ll acknowledge the Navy triple-option-based offense fits the college overtime format well. Still, the rule of thumb should always be that if you’re playing a less talented team, you extend the game as long as possible to give your superior talent a chance to flex its muscle. Plus, Navy’s placekicker was about as accurate as an Imperial Stormtrooper, meaning there was a better-than-decent chance the Middies would end up scoreless on any possession that didn’t reach the end zone in overtime.
- But OU’s offense remained on the field after a somewhat-miraculous last-second touchdown drive pulled the Sooners within a point. Despite many, many, MANY qualms about the decision, I awaited the play with great anticipation and hope. As Admiral Bates told Casey Ryback in the 1992 shoulda-been Best Picture-winner Under Siege, “If I can’t control you, I might as well condone you.”
- I don’t condone idiocy, though. The greatly anticipated play turned into a total turkey. Defying all common sense, OU offensive coordinator Joe Jon Finley dialed up a drop-back pass for his decidedly NON-drop-back-passing quarterback. Almost spectacularly, it didn’t work, as Michael Hawkins was pulled down for the least-surprising sack in the history of college football.
- As for the other 59-plus minutes of the game, it initially appeared OU might absolutely blow out the Midshipmen. Two touchdowns on the first two possessions seemed to be a harbinger of a big offensive afternoon for the Sooners.
- It proved to be a mirage. Once the Sooners finished their scripted plays to start the game with one score — and after Hawkins used his athleticism on a broken play to create another — the offense went mute. It wasn’t a surprise because, since Finley had taken over as offensive coordinator in mid-season, the Sooners showed a staggering inability to make adjustments over the course of a game.
- Another unsurprising development followed: The OU defense, while again good enough to win the game, proved not good enough to win the game without any help from its offense. Navy continued to chip away, chip away, chip away, and eventually the Sooners fell behind 21-14 in the fourth quarter.
- It all set the stage for what became, without a doubt, a gutsy last-gasp drive by Hawkins and the offense. It also set the stage for what was, without a doubt, some of the dumbest decision-making by an OU coaching staff in years.
- Let’s move to the games that actually counted. Texas defeated both Clemson and Arizona State in the first two rounds of the playoffs, the latter being nothing short of a classic. Still, the Tigers and Sun Devils represented arguably two of the weaker postseason squads. Texas handled Clemson with aplomb but fell asleep after a quick start against Arizona State.
- During their somnambulistic efforts in round two, the Longhorns watched Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo etch his name in college football lore. The bulky Sun Devil ran around the field like an anthropomorphic Sherman Tank, almost single-handedly pulling his team back from a 17-3 halftime hole to a 31-24 overtime lead.
- Texas’ offense had, by that point, reawakened. The Longhorns scored two touchdowns on five plays in overtime to clinch the 39-31 win. Much harder competition awaits, however …
- … starting Jan. 10 with an Ohio State team that has suddenly positioned itself as the runaway favorite for the national championship. After an absolutely embarrassing loss to Michigan to end their regular season, the Buckeyes did unspeakable things to Tennessee (42-17) and top-ranked and undefeated Oregon (41-21).
- When I played high school football, my Hartshorne Miners were undefeated through the first seven weeks of my senior season in 1991. We weren’t full of ourselves, nor overly cocky, but there did seem to be a lack of focus, from the coaching staff down to the players. Maybe we were doing more things for everyone else’s benefit (like letting me step foot on the field!) instead of what was best for the team.
- Come week eight, we lost a miserable, rain-soaked game to our rivals, the Wilburton Diggers. Afterward, however, the players felt a weight had been taken off our shoulders as the pressure of being perfect was over. The coaching staff, meanwhile, quit worrying about running a semblance of a “modern” offense, and we regressed back into primordial form: A full-house backfield with double tight ends piling up three yards at as a time as we strung together clouds of dust. It didn’t appear “sexy” or “modern,” and it didn’t keep the coaching staff from being criticized as knuckle-dragging football luddites, but it worked.
- We started a new winning streak that led us to the state semifinals, where we were finally upended by one of the greatest small-school teams in state history: James Allen’s Wynnewood Savages. The moral of the story? Sometimes, losing a heartbreaking game can be the best thing to happen to a football team.
- I truly believe that is what happened to Ohio State. The Buckeyes were tighter than an eight-day clock for most of the season, and the coaches seemed more worried about being labeled “soft.” After their backs were against the wall following the Michigan loss, however, I think the players felt free and the coaches just didn’t give a damn about outside criticism anymore. The team reverted to its strengths against Tennessee and Oregon — a wide-open, downfield passing game — and began to roll.
- In the other semifinal, Notre Dame is set to face Penn State on Jan. 9. The Fighting Irish impressively crushed Indiana and then held off a compromised Georgia team that played with its backup quarterback. Penn State, meanwhile, had arguably an even easier road than Texas, with postseason wins against SMU and Boise State. Still, the Nittany Lions did their job, and considering the long list of failures in big games littered about their recent past, it’s a reason for celebration in State College.
- Excuse me, however, if I refuse to buy into Penn State’s success. Blame it on my continued attempt at being an amateur sociologist and psychologist: Besides swimming in a cesspool of recency bias, the Nittany Lions are also triggering my results-based thinking bugaboo.
