Polling ahead of Oklahoma runoffs can be extra tricky. Based on who voted in a primary election, questions abound about who might turn out two months later. What will that group of voters look like? How can we anticipate who might prevail? What additional factors could drive turnout?
For Oklahoma pollster Bill Shapard, those questions are nothing new.
Shapard said his estimate is a roughly 31 percent or 32 percent turnout for next week’s election, something he said would be higher than previous years.
In this episode of NonDoc and FKG Consulting’s How We Got Here podcast, Shapard, William W. Savage III and Bryan Fried discuss developments ahead of the Aug. 28 election. They also examine Shapard’s polling data on: the GOP gubernatorial race, the GOP 1st District congressional race and more.
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Catch past episodes of How We Got Here
Episode 10: Pot rules: The Board of Health’s marijuana action
Episode 9: Primary colors — Green lit, red runoffs, blue wave?
Episode 8: Bud on bud — Deep in the weeds on SQ 788
Episode 7: The history of how Oklahoma cares about kids
Episode 6: Wind, guns, budget and a 72-ounce steak
Episode 5: A teacher walkout podcast
Episode 4: Diving deep on Medicaid
Episode 3: Let’s get gubernatorial
Episode 2: Summing up Step Up
Episode 1: Down to brass tax
(Editor’s note: How We Got Here is produced in partnership between NonDoc and FKG Consulting, a lobbying and public policy firm based in Oklahoma City. In each episode, all participants speak freely on the topic at hand. To view a list of FKG’s clients go here.)